Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel at 43%, wide split 20%, 69% and lower than the crowd (79%)

The panel mean is 0.43 and the median is 0.42, with forecasts ranging from 0.2 to 0.69 across 14 models. Most records cluster near the median, with several models at or just above 0.42 and a minority at the extremes. The split is between a small pro‑yes cluster (highest values 0.69, 0.60, 0.60) and a larger set of cautious or low estimates (many ≤0.45, down to 0.20). The single argument doing the most work is that only four models explicitly lean yes, leaving the panel broadly unconvinced relative to the crowd price of 79%.

• Panel mean 0.43, median 0.42 across 14 models
• Forecasts span lowest 0.20 to highest 0.69
• Only four models are recorded as leaning yes
• Panel sits well below the crowd price of 79%
• Most models cluster near the median, a minority at extremes