WORLD · Settled
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 70% YES; 17 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 80%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
United Russia won, panel leaned YES at 70% mean versus crowd 80%
The outcome was YES. The panel mean was 70%, median 74%, with 17 of 20 models calling YES; the crowd Polymarket price was 80%. DeepSeek R1 made the strongest call at 97% and scored near-zero Brier 0.001. The biggest miss was Gemini 2.5 Pro at 3%, with Brier 0.941. The panel showed wide spread between 97% and 3%, but most models sided with YES.
- Outcome: YES, resolved 2026-09-21 13:00:01.
- Crowd Polymarket price frozen at 80%, the crowd called it YES.
- Panel: 20 models, 17 called YES, mean 70%, median 74%.
- Highest forecast 97% (DeepSeek R1), lowest 3% (Gemini 2.5 Pro).
- Best Brier was 0.001 (DeepSeek R1); worst Brier was 0.941 (Gemini 2.5 Pro).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek R197%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash95%
- Perplexity Sonar93%
- Claude Sonnet 4.592%
- Mistral Large88%
- DeepSeek V388%
- Llama 4 Maverick85%
- Kimi K278%
- GPT-5 Mini76%
- Claude Opus 4.175%
- Qwen3 235B72%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro72%
- GPT-5 + web search70%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search69%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search69%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search69%
- GPT-559%
- Grok 4.529%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search28%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro3%