SPORTS · Settled
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 11% YES; 0 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 20%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Rybakina won the 2026 US Open; panel mostly doubted it, crowd priced it higher
The outcome was YES. The panel sat well below the crowd: panel mean p_yes 0.11 versus the crowd p_yes 0.2. DeepSeek R1 was the strongest panel call, assigning 0.28. Most models gave single-digit probabilities and the lowest model was Claude Opus 4.1 at 0.02, so no panel model called it.
- Outcome: YES.
- Panel mean p_yes 0.11, median p_yes 0.1.
- Crowd p_yes 0.2, higher than the panel mean.
- Highest panel p_yes 0.28 (DeepSeek R1).
- Lowest panel p_yes 0.02 (Claude Opus 4.1); no model called it.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek R128%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro22%
- GPT-5 + web search20%
- Perplexity Sonar19%
- GPT-512%
- Mistral Large12%
- GPT-5 Mini11%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search10%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search10%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search10%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search9%
- Qwen3 235B8%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- DeepSeek V37%
- Llama 4 Maverick5%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash5%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro5%
- Grok 4.54%
- Kimi K23%
- Claude Opus 4.12%