SPORTS · Settled
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 14% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 24%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Coco Gauff did not win the 2026 US Open, panel averaged 14% vs crowd 24%
Outcome: NO. The panel of 20 models unanimously forecasted low chances, mean 14% and median 13%, while the crowd price was 24% and called it. The best call was Llama 4 Maverick, which gave the lowest probability, 5%, and thus the strongest NO signal. The panel’s higher-probability misses clustered near the top end, led by Perplexity Sonar Pro at 29%.
- Outcome resolved NO on 2026-09-13.
- Panel: 20 models, all called it, mean_p_yes 14% and median_p_yes 13%.
- Crowd price was 24%, and the crowd called it.
- Best single model call: Llama 4 Maverick p_yes 5%, brier 0.003.
- Weakest single model call: Perplexity Sonar Pro p_yes 29%, brier 0.084.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar Pro29%
- GPT-5 + web search25%
- Perplexity Sonar23%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash18%
- Mistral Large18%
- GPT-515%
- DeepSeek R115%
- Qwen3 235B15%
- Kimi K215%
- GPT-5 Mini14%
- Claude Sonnet 4.512%
- Grok 4.511%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search9%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search9%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search9%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search9%
- DeepSeek V38%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro7%
- Llama 4 Maverick5%