SPORTS · Settled
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 11% YES; 20 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 36%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Ben Shelton did not win the 2026 US Open, panel was far more sceptical than the crowd
Outcome: NO. The panel's mean probability was 11% versus the crowd's frozen Polymarket price of 36%. Best calls were the very low probabilities from Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search and Qwen3 235B at 2%, which matched the outcome. The highest panel forecast, Llama 4 Maverick + web search at 36%, echoed the crowd and was the furthest from the panel mean. Overall the panel unanimously called NO, with median 7% and all 20 models aligned.
- Outcome resolved NO on 2026-09-14.
- Crowd (Polymarket frozen price) was 36% YES.
- Panel mean was 11% YES, median 7%, all 20 models called it.
- Lowest model forecasts were 2% (two agents) and highest was 36%.
- Best individual Brier scores clustered with the lowest probabilities.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search36%
- GPT-5 + web search24%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro22%
- Perplexity Sonar22%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro18%
- Kimi K215%
- Mistral Large12%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search9%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- DeepSeek R17%
- Grok 4.56%
- Llama 4 Maverick5%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash5%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search5%
- GPT-5 Mini5%
- GPT-54%
- Claude Sonnet 4.54%
- DeepSeek V33%
- Qwen3 235B2%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search2%