SPORTS · Settled
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?
The answer: YES
The panel of 13 models averaged 10% YES; 0 of 13 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 20%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Zverev won the 2026 US Open, the panel heavily underpriced the outcome
The outcome was YES: Alexander Zverev won the 2026 men's US Open. The panel mean was 10% while the crowd price was 20%, so the crowd was twice as optimistic. No panel model called the win; Mistral Large made the strongest call with 18%. The panel’s misses were clustered in very low probabilities, the lowest at 4% and the highest at 18%.
- Outcome: YES, Zverev won the 2026 US Open.
- Panel mean p_yes: 10%, median 8%, range 4% to 18%.
- Crowd (Polymarket frozen price) p_yes: 20%, called it false at closing but was closer.
- No panel model had a called_it true; best single panel forecast was 18% (Mistral Large).
- All panel models substantially underweighted the actual outcome.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Mistral Large18%
- DeepSeek R115%
- Claude Opus 4.112%
- Qwen3 235B12%
- GPT-511%
- Grok 4.511%
- Claude Sonnet 4.58%
- DeepSeek V38%
- Kimi K28%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash7%
- GPT-5 Mini6%
- Llama 4 Maverick5%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro4%