SPORTS · Settled
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
The answer: NO
The panel of 13 models averaged 21% YES; 13 of 13 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 35%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel predicted NO, sitting below the crowd at 21% versus the crowd's 35%
The outcome was NO. The 13-model panel had mean p_yes 0.21, median 0.2, with every model recorded as having called it. The crowd price was 0.35 and also called NO. Best-scoring model was Llama 4 Maverick at p_yes 0.12 with the lowest Brier 0.014. The highest panel p_yes was Mistral Large at 0.35, which produced the worst Brier 0.123.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-09-13 00:00:01.
- Panel mean p_yes 0.21, median p_yes 0.2, all 13 models called it.
- Crowd (Polymarket frozen price) p_yes 0.35, also called it.
- Lowest model p_yes 0.12 (Llama 4 Maverick), lowest Brier 0.014.
- Highest model p_yes 0.35 (Mistral Large), highest Brier 0.123.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Mistral Large35%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro28%
- DeepSeek R128%
- Kimi K222%
- GPT-522%
- Claude Sonnet 4.522%
- DeepSeek V320%
- Claude Opus 4.118%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash18%
- Grok 4.518%
- Qwen3 235B18%
- GPT-5 Mini16%
- Llama 4 Maverick12%