Will the WTI crude oil close above 96.41 on Friday 9 October?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans NO, modest spread with a 30-point high, low split

The panel mean is 45% yes, median 48%, with forecasts ranging from 25% to 55%. Most records cluster near 48%, signalling lukewarm doubt about a close above 96.41. The split meets the panel's threshold for disagreement because the top and bottom forecasts are 30 points apart. Nearly all models submitted no theses or drivers, so the strongest signals are the probabilities themselves rather than documented arguments.

• Panel mean_p_yes 45% and median_p_yes 48%.
• Lowest chance of YES 25%, highest chance of YES 55%, spread equals 30 points.
• Four models explicitly lean yes, per 'leaning_yes': 4.
• Many models cluster at 48% or 47%, indicating broad ambivalence.
• Almost all forecasts contain empty thesis and drivers fields.