MARKETS · Settled
Will the WTI crude oil close above 107.02 on Friday 2 October?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 33% YES; 18 of 20 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 50%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel leaned NO, beat the 50% base rate; best call was GPT-5 at 3%
The question resolved NO (WTI closed 97.89, below 107.02). The panel mean was 33% YES, below the crowd base rate of 50%, and 18 of 20 models called NO. GPT-5 made the strongest NO call and produced the lowest Brier. The highest forecasts (up to 52% YES) were on the other side and missed.
- Outcome: NO, Friday close 97.89 vs threshold 107.02.
- Crowd was a historical base rate frozen at 50%, neutral.
- Panel mean 33% YES, median 39% YES; 18 of 20 models called NO.
- Best single Brier: GPT-5, chance of YES 3%, Brier 0.001.
- Highest forecast: Llama 4 Maverick, chance of YES 52%, Brier 0.27.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Llama 4 Maverick52%
- DeepSeek R150%
- Grok 4.549%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search48%
- Qwen3 235B47%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search46%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash42%
- Claude Sonnet 4.542%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search42%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro40%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search38%
- Kimi K235%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro32%
- DeepSeek V325%
- Perplexity Sonar23%
- Mistral Large18%
- GPT-5 + web search15%
- GPT-5 Mini14%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- GPT-53%