Will the WTI crude oil close above 97.26 on Friday 25 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

WTI failed to close above 97.26, panel leaned NO but individual forecasts ranged widely

The outcome was NO (close 85.23 vs 97.26). The crowd was a 50% base rate; the panel mean was 45% and the median 49%, so the panel sat slightly with NO versus the crowd. Best call was GPT-5, which gave YES 6% and scored a near-zero Brier of 0.004. Worst calls were GPT-5 + web search and Perplexity Sonar Pro, each at YES 72% with Brier 0.518.

• Outcome: NO, WTI closed 85.23 on 2026-09-25 vs 97.26 at asking
• Crowd was a historical base rate at 50%
• Panel mean 45%, median 49%, 11 of 20 models called NO
• Individual forecasts ranged from 6% to 72% on YES, a 66 point spread
• Best Brier 0.004 (GPT-5); worst Brier 0.518 (GPT-5 + web search, Perplexity Sonar Pro)