Will the VIX close above 14.21 on Friday 9 October?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans YES, mean 55% with a 30-point spread between models

The panel mean is 0.55, median 0.52, with forecasts from 0.42 to 0.72 and 13 of 17 leaning YES. Most models cluster just above 50%, indicating modest confidence that VIX will close above 14.21. The split is wide enough to trigger disagreement, with the highest forecasters at 72% and 70% and the lowest at 42, 45%. No model entries include theses, drivers or sources to explain their probabilities.

• Panel mean 55% YES, median 0.52, crowd 47% YES.
• Range of forecasts: lowest 0.42, highest 0.72, spread 0.30.
• 13 of 17 models lean YES, indicating a pro-YES tilt.
• Individual records contain no stated theses, drivers or sources.