MARKETS · Settled
Will the VIX close above 14.81 on Friday 2 October?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 54% YES; 13 of 20 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 48%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
VIX closed above 14.81, panel leaned YES while the base rate stayed lower
The VIX closed 15.31 on 2026-10-02, so the outcome was YES. The panel mean was 0.54 and median 0.55 versus the crowd base rate 0.48. Thirteen of 20 models called YES; the strongest call was Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search at 82% and the weakest was DeepSeek V3 at 28%. The panel disagreed widely, but individual records contain no recorded theses or drivers to explain the divergence.
- Outcome: YES (VIX close 15.31 vs 14.81, observation 2026-10-02).
- Panel mean 0.54, median 0.55, crowd base rate 0.48.
- 13 of 20 models called YES.
- Forecasts ranged from 0.28 to 0.82.
- Best Brier 0.032 (Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search); worst Brier 0.518 (DeepSeek V3).
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search82%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro65%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search62%
- GPT-5 + web search62%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search62%
- GPT-5 Mini60%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search60%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro60%
- Qwen3 235B58%
- Grok 4.556%
- Perplexity Sonar54%
- GPT-554%
- Claude Opus 4.152%
- Llama 4 Maverick48%
- Claude Sonnet 4.548%
- Kimi K245%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash45%
- Mistral Large42%
- DeepSeek R140%
- DeepSeek V328%