MARKETS · Settled
Will the VIX close above 15.84 on Friday 25 September?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 53% YES; 6 of 20 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 48%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
VIX closed below 15.84, panel leaned YES at 53% while crowd base rate was 48%
The VIX closed at 14.87 on 25 September, so the outcome was NO. The panel mean was 53% and the median 53%, above the crowd base rate of 48%. Six of 20 models explicitly called NO; the panel's lowest forecast, 32%, was the closest to the outcome. The highest forecasts, up to 72%, were on the opposite side and missed decisively.
- Outcome: NO, VIX Friday close 14.87 versus threshold 15.84.
- Panel mean 53% and median 53% versus crowd base rate 48%.
- 6 of 20 models called NO, 14 called YES or were neutral.
- Panel forecasts ranged from 32% to 72%, a 40 point spread.
- Lowest forecast 32% (DeepSeek V3) was closest; highest 72% (Gemini 2.5 Pro) was furthest off.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro72%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search68%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro68%
- GPT-5 + web search58%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search58%
- Perplexity Sonar57%
- GPT-556%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search55%
- DeepSeek R155%
- GPT-5 Mini53%
- Grok 4.553%
- Llama 4 Maverick52%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search52%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash50%
- Claude Opus 4.148%
- Claude Sonnet 4.548%
- Mistral Large42%
- Kimi K242%
- Qwen3 235B38%
- DeepSeek V332%