Will the VIX close above 14.32 on Friday 11 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

VIX closed above 14.32, panel slightly over the crowd with Perplexity Sonar Pro top call

The VIX closed at 15.84 on 11 September, so the answer was YES. The 18-model panel favoured YES with mean 0.54 and called it (12 models), while the crowd was at 0.48 and did not call it. Perplexity Sonar Pro made the strongest call at 0.68 and scored the best Brier 0.102. Models that missed were those giving lower probabilities, down to 0.40, and the crowd stuck to the frozen base rate 0.48.

• Outcome: YES, VIX Friday close 15.84 vs threshold 14.32.
• Panel: 18 models, mean p_yes 0.54, median p_yes 0.55, 12 models called YES.
• Crowd: p_yes 0.48, called_it false, historical base rate frozen.
• Best probability: Perplexity Sonar Pro p_yes 0.68, Brier 0.102.
• Lowest probability: DeepSeek V3 p_yes 0.40, Brier 0.36.