Will the USD/JPY close above 156.87 on Friday 9 October?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits near 48%, split between a 61% high cluster and a 2% low outlier

The panel mean is 48%, median 49%, with forecasts ranging from 2% to 61%. Most records cluster around the high-40s, and 9 of 20 models lean YES. The main split is a small group at the top (up to 61%) versus a single low outlier at 2%; the records do not provide theses or drivers to explain the split. The single fact doing the most work is the panel's central tendency: a near-even market view centred on 48%.

• Panel mean 48%, median 49%, lowest 2%, highest 61%.
• 9 of 20 models lean YES.
• Crowd price is 57%; the panel sits below the crowd.
• Most models cluster in the mid-to-high 40s to low 50s.
• Records contain no theses, drivers, uncertainty text, or sources.