MARKETS · Settled
Will the USD/JPY close above 156.11 on Friday 25 September?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 47% YES; 9 of 20 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 58%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
USD/JPY closed above 156.11, panel leaned NO while the base rate favoured YES
The outcome was YES. The crowd base rate was 0.58, the panel mean was 0.47 and median 0.49, so the panel sat below the crowd. Nine of 20 models forecast YES; the panel’s highest forecast was 0.65 from Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search and the lowest was 0.22 from GPT-5 Mini. Models that missed tended to give low probabilities, and no model records included detailed theses or drivers.
- Outcome: YES, Friday close 157.18 vs 156.11 (resolution source provided).
- Crowd (historical base rate) 58% YES, called it.
- Panel mean 47% YES, median 0.49; 9 of 20 models called YES.
- Panel range: lowest 0.22, highest 0.65, disagreement present.
- No model entries included recorded theses or drivers in the material.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search65%
- Mistral Large58%
- DeepSeek V355%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro54%
- DeepSeek R152%
- Kimi K252%
- Claude Sonnet 4.552%
- Llama 4 Maverick52%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash50%
- GPT-549%
- Grok 4.549%
- Claude Opus 4.148%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search48%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search48%
- Qwen3 235B47%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search45%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro36%
- GPT-5 + web search34%
- Perplexity Sonar31%
- GPT-5 Mini22%