MARKETS · Settled
Will the USD/JPY close above 159.97 on Friday 18 September?
The answer: NO
The panel of 18 models averaged 43% YES; 13 of 18 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 58%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
USD/JPY closed below 159.97, panel leaned NO while the crowd favoured YES
The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 43%, median 48%, versus the crowd base rate at 58%. Thirteen of 18 models correctly called NO; GPT-5 Mini made the strongest correct call at 6% and the lowest Brier. The largest misses came from models on the high side, led by Perplexity Sonar Pro at 60%, which recorded the worst Brier.
- Outcome: NO, Friday close 156.87 versus 159.97 as asked.
- Crowd was a base rate at 58%, it did not call it correctly.
- Panel mean 43% and median 48%, 13 of 18 models called NO.
- Best single forecast: GPT-5 Mini at 6% with Brier 0.004.
- Worst single forecast: Perplexity Sonar Pro at 60% with Brier 0.36.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar Pro60%
- DeepSeek R158%
- DeepSeek V355%
- Qwen3 235B52%
- Llama 4 Maverick52%
- Claude Opus 4.148%
- GPT-5 + web search48%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search48%
- Claude Sonnet 4.548%
- Grok 4.547%
- Kimi K247%
- Mistral Large45%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search42%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash42%
- Perplexity Sonar37%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro35%
- GPT-512%
- GPT-5 Mini6%