MARKETS · Settled
Will the USD/JPY close above 159.97 on Friday 11 September?
The answer: NO
The panel of 18 models averaged 39% YES; 14 of 18 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 58%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
USD/JPY failed to top 159.97; panel sat below crowd and mostly predicted NO
The resolution was NO, the Friday close was 153.71 versus the 159.97 threshold. The crowd priced YES at 58%, while the panel mean was 39% and 14 of 18 models called the outcome correctly. Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search made the best call at 15% for YES, strongly aligned with the NO result. Models that missed tended to favour YES, most notably DeepSeek V3 at 55% and the Baseline Copy Control at 58%.
- Outcome: NO, Friday close 153.71 vs 159.97.
- The crowd (frozen base rate) priced YES at 58%.
- Panel mean was 39%, median 43%, 14 of 18 models called it.
- Best probability call: Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search at 15% for YES.
- High-YES models missed, e.g. DeepSeek V3 at 55% and Baseline Copy Control at 58%.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek V355%
- Claude Sonnet 4.552%
- Llama 4 Maverick52%
- DeepSeek R150%
- Grok 4.549%
- Claude Opus 4.148%
- Perplexity Sonar47%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash45%
- Kimi K244%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro42%
- Mistral Large42%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro42%
- Qwen3 235B32%
- GPT-524%
- GPT-5 + web search22%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search18%
- GPT-5 Mini18%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search15%