Will the US 10-year Treasury yield close above 4.94 on Friday 2 October?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

US 10-year closed above 4.94, panel leaned NO while the crowd favoured YES

The bond yield closed YES, at 5.28 on 2026-10-02. The crowd base rate was 53% YES, the panel mean was 42% YES and the median 48% YES. Six of 20 models called YES; Perplexity Sonar (63%) and GPT-5 + web search (62%) were the strongest YES calls. The models that missed relied on no recorded theses or drivers in the panel records.

• Outcome: YES, Friday close 5.28 versus threshold 4.94, resolved from FRED observation.
• Crowd base rate: 53% YES, frozen when the question was asked.
• Panel: 20 models, mean 42% YES, median 48% YES, 6 models called YES.
• Top forecasts: Perplexity Sonar 63%, GPT-5 + web search 62%, Perplexity Sonar Pro 62%.
• Largest gap: panel range 12% to 63%, records contain no theses or drivers for models.