Will the US 10-year Treasury yield close above 4.95 on Friday 25 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

US 10-year yield closed above 4.95, crowd favoured YES, panel leaned NO

The bond yield closed at 5.17 on 25 September, so the outcome was YES. The frozen historical base rate, the crowd, was 53% and therefore called it. The panel mean was 43% (median 47%), with 6 of 20 models calling YES; the panel on average leaned NO. Perplexity Sonar Pro made the strongest YES call at 63%, and Kimi K2 the weakest at 12%; neither record included a thesis or drivers.

• Outcome: YES, Friday close 5.17 versus 4.95 (resolution source cited).
• The crowd was a historical base rate at 53%, it called YES.
• Panel mean 43% and median 47%, 6 of 20 models called YES.
• Highest panel forecast 63% (Perplexity Sonar Pro), lowest 12% (Kimi K2).
• Disagreement across the panel: high 63% vs low 12% (gap 51 points).