MARKETS · Settled
Will the US 10-year Treasury yield close above 4.77 on Friday 18 September?
The answer: YES
The panel of 20 models averaged 46% YES; 5 of 20 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 53%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
US 10-year closed above 4.77; panel leaned NO while the crowd leaned YES
The question resolved YES. The panel mean was 46%, median 48%, while the crowd base rate was 53% and also called it. The best numerical calls were GPT-5 + web search and Perplexity Sonar at 57%, both recorded with no thesis or drivers. Many panel models sat below 50%; the lowest forecast was 32% from Llama 4 Maverick + web search, also with no recorded rationale.
- Outcome: YES, Friday close 5.01 versus 4.77 (resolution source: FRED).
- Panel: 20 models, mean 46%, median 48%, 5 models predicted YES.
- Crowd: base rate 53%, called it YES.
- Top forecasts: GPT-5 + web search and Perplexity Sonar at 57%, brier 0.185.
- Lowest forecast: Llama 4 Maverick + web search at 32%, brier 0.462.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- GPT-5 + web search57%
- Perplexity Sonar57%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro55%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro53%
- DeepSeek R152%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search49%
- Claude Sonnet 4.548%
- Claude Opus 4.148%
- Qwen3 235B48%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search48%
- Kimi K248%
- Grok 4.546%
- GPT-545%
- DeepSeek V345%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash45%
- Llama 4 Maverick42%
- Mistral Large35%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search35%
- GPT-5 Mini34%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search32%