Will the US 10-year Treasury yield close above 4.77 on Friday 11 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

US 10-year closed above 4.77, panel leaned a bit lower than the crowd

Outcome: YES, the US 10-year Treasury closed at 4.96 on 2026-09-11, above 4.77. The panel mean was 0.46 versus the crowd at 0.53, so the panel underweighted the event relative to the frozen crowd price. Perplexity Sonar Pro made the strongest correct call at 0.6 with the best Brier score 0.16. Misses were driven by several models assigning substantially lower probabilities, down to 0.25 for GPT-5 Mini.

• Resolved YES: Friday close 4.96 vs 4.77 at asking, observation 2026-09-11.
• The crowd probability was 0.53, it called the event correctly.
• Panel mean_p_yes was 0.46, median_p_yes 0.48, 6 of 16 models called YES.
• Highest panel probability 0.6 (Perplexity Sonar Pro), lowest 0.25 (GPT-5 Mini).
• Best Brier 0.16 (Perplexity Sonar Pro), worst Brier 0.563 (GPT-5 Mini).