Will Unemployment rate for September 2026 come in at 4.3 or higher?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Unemployment under 4.3: panel and crowd both sat at 31%, outcome NO, wide model split

The official September 2026 unemployment rate resolved to below 4.3, so the answer was NO. The panel mean was 31% for YES, identical to the crowd's base rate of 31%. The best call was Gemini 2.5 Pro at 2%, which strongly favoured NO and scored the lowest Brier. The worst calls were Llama 4 Maverick and Qwen3 235B, both at 52% for YES, which strongly favoured the wrong side.

• Outcome: NO, the unemployment rate came in below 4.3 (first print 4.2 vs level 4.3).
• Panel mean chance of YES 31%, crowd base rate chance of YES 31%, both called NO overall (called_it true).
• Best single model call: Gemini 2.5 Pro at 2% YES, near-zero Brier.
• Worst single model calls: Llama 4 Maverick and Qwen3 235B at 52% YES, largest Brier penalties.
• Forecast spread large: lowest 2%, highest 52%, a 50 point range.