Will Unemployment rate for August 2026 come in above the previous reading of 4.1?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits at 47% yes, clustered near 40, 52% with one high 72% outlier

The panel mean is 47% yes, median 47%, with probabilities ranging from 34% to 72%. Most models cluster between 34% and 52%, producing a near-tossup central tendency. Five models are recorded as leaning yes, while one model (Gemini 2.5 Pro) is an outlier at 72%, which raises the mean above the crowd price of 38%. The single argument doing the most work is that Gemini 2.5 Pro's high 72% skews the panel mean upward relative to the cluster of moderate probabilities.

• Panel mean p_yes 47% and median 47%
• Panel range: lowest 34% (Grok 4.5) to highest 72% (Gemini 2.5 Pro)
• Five models explicitly lean yes
• Most models cluster in the 34, 52% band
• Panel mean sits above crowd price of 38%