Will the S&P 500 close above 7656.98 on Friday 25 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

S&P closed above the threshold, the crowd was more bullish than the panel

The S&P 500 closed at 7743.41 on 2026-09-25, above the target 7656.98, so the outcome was YES. The crowd's frozen base rate was 62%, the panel mean was 51% (median 52%), and 15 of 20 models called YES. Perplexity Sonar Pro made the best call at 60% and had the lowest Brier, the misses were the models that gave low probabilities or explicitly sided NO. Several panel records contained no theses or drivers, so misses provide no documented rationale in the material.

• Outcome: YES, Friday close 7743.41 vs target 7656.98 (observation 2026-09-25).
• The crowd's frozen base rate was 62%, it called the event.
• Panel: 20 models, 15 called YES, mean 51% and median 52%.
• Panel range: highest 60% (Perplexity Sonar Pro) to lowest 35% (Mistral Large).
• Best model Brier 0.16 (Perplexity Sonar Pro); worst Brier 0.423 (Mistral Large).