Will the S&P 500 close above 7718.60 on Friday 11 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

S&P 500 closed below 7718.60, the panel leaned NO while the crowd favoured YES

The outcome was NO, the S&P 500 closed at 7656.98 versus 7718.60. The crowd (historical base rate) had p(YES) 61% and was wrong. The panel of 16 models averaged p(YES) 44%, with 7 models calling NO and the median at 51%. Best calls were the very low YES probabilities; misses were models that favoured YES up to 55%.

• Outcome NO: actual close 7656.98 vs threshold 7718.60.
• The crowd froze at p(YES) 61% and called it incorrectly.
• Panel mean p(YES) 44%, median p(YES) 51%, 7 of 16 models called it correctly.
• Panel probabilities ranged from lowest p(YES) 2% to highest p(YES) 55%.
• Top-performing models gave very low YES probabilities; worst were those at 55% YES.