Will Non-farm payrolls for September 2026 come in at +76 or higher?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Panel favoured YES, crowd base rate 50%; outcome NO, three models called NO

The outcome was NO: non-farm payrolls did not reach +76. The panel mean was 0.61 and median 0.68, both above the crowd base rate 0.5. Only three models called NO: Mistral Large (15%), Kimi K2 (22%) and Llama 4 Maverick (32%); Mistral Large made the strongest correct call. The higher-probability models clustered between 0.62 and 0.82 and missed the NO outcome.

• Outcome: NO (first print +29 vs level +76)
• Crowd was the historical base rate frozen at 0.5
• Panel mean 0.61, panel median 0.68, 3 of 20 models called NO
• Best NO calls: Mistral Large 15% (near-zero Brier 0.023)
• Highest YES was Claude Sonnet 4.5 at 0.82, which missed