Will the Nikkei 225 close above 68309.46 on Friday 16 October?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits below the crowd at 43%, wide split between 57% and 2%

The panel mean is 43%, median 48%, with a spread from 57% down to 2%. The panel sits below the crowd price of 58%. Most records give midrange probabilities clustered near 48%, but the records include no theses or drivers. The split is large because some agents reported substantially higher probabilities while others reported near-zero odds; none provided stated reasons in their records. The only substantive input in the records is the probability numbers themselves.

• Panel mean 43%, median 48%, highest 57%, lowest 2%.
• Panel sits below the crowd price of 58%.
• 8 models lean yes, 18 models in the panel total.
• Most entries supply only probabilities; theses, drivers and sources are empty.
• Large disagreement arises from numeric dispersion, not stated rationale.