Will the Nikkei 225 close above 66364.20 on Friday 9 October?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans NO, mean 40%, wide split: high 58% vs low 2%

The panel mean is 40% and the median is 48%, with forecasts ranging from 2% to 58%. Most records cluster around 48%, 53%, reflecting a modestly uncertain tilt. The panel splits between a small group at the top (up to 58%) and a small group at the bottom (down to 2%), but individual records provide no theses or drivers. The single factor doing the most work is the cluster of models reporting probabilities near 48%, 53%, which dominate the centre of the distribution.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 40%.
• Panel median chance of YES is 48%.
• Highest chance of YES is 58%, lowest chance of YES is 2%.
• 7 models listed as leaning yes.
• Most models report probabilities between 48% and 53%.