Will the Nikkei 225 close above 65018.95 on Friday 2 October?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Nikkei closed above the mark, panel leaned NO on average while the crowd favoured YES

The outcome was YES. The panel mean was 0.43 and the median 0.52, versus the crowd base rate 0.57. Perplexity Sonar (0.58) was the best call, registering the lowest Brier while favouring YES. The largest misses were models that strongly favoured NO, which recorded very low YES probabilities rather than adducing evidence in the records.

• Outcome: YES (Nikkei 225 close 68,309.46 vs threshold 65,018.95).
• Panel: 20 models, 13 called YES, mean 43% YES, median 52% YES.
• Crowd: base rate 57% YES, it called YES.
• Best single model probability: Perplexity Sonar 0.58, Brier 0.176.
• Worst single model probabilities: DeepSeek R1 and GPT-5 Mini 0.02, Brier 0.96.