Will the Nikkei 225 close above 64011.34 on Friday 25 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Nikkei closed above 64011.34, the panel leaned NO while the base rate leaned YES

Outcome: YES (close 66364.20). The crowd base rate was 0.57 and called it. The panel mean was 0.46, median 0.5, so the panel sat below the crowd and did not, on average, call the outcome. Best-performing panel forecast was Perplexity Sonar at 0.56, which sided with the crowd. Worst-performing forecast was GPT-5 Mini at 0.02, which was strongly wrong.

• Outcome: YES, Nikkei Friday close 66364.20 versus threshold 64011.34.
• The crowd was a historical base rate at 0.57 and called the event.
• Panel mean 0.46, median 0.5, 10 of 20 models called YES.
• Highest panel forecast 0.56, lowest 0.02, giving a 54-point spread.
• Best panel brier among listed models: Perplexity Sonar brier 0.194; worst brier GPT-5 Mini 0.96.