MARKETS · Settled
Will the Nikkei 225 close above 65020.94 on Friday 18 September?
The answer: NO
The panel of 18 models averaged 45% YES; 8 of 18 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 58%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Nikkei closed just below the line, panel sat below the crowd's 0.58 base rate
The Nikkei 225 closed NO, Friday close 65018.95 vs 65020.94. The crowd's frozen base rate was 0.58; the panel mean was 0.45 and the median 0.52, both below the crowd. GPT-5 Mini and Gemini 2.5 Flash made the strongest correct calls, assigning 0.02 and 0.03 to YES and scoring near-zero Briers. Several models, led by Qwen3 235B at 0.58, favoured YES and missed.
- Outcome: NO, Friday close 65018.95 versus 65020.94.
- Crowd was a historical base rate 58% YES, it called it wrong.
- Panel mean 45% YES, median 52% YES, both below the crowd.
- Best Brier: GPT-5 Mini 2% YES, Brier 0.
- Largest high-side forecast: Qwen3 235B 58% YES, Brier 0.336.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Qwen3 235B58%
- Perplexity Sonar57%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro56%
- Mistral Large55%
- GPT-553%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro52%
- Grok 4.552%
- DeepSeek R152%
- GPT-5 + web search52%
- Llama 4 Maverick52%
- Claude Opus 4.148%
- Claude Sonnet 4.548%
- DeepSeek V345%
- Kimi K242%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search42%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search42%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash3%
- GPT-5 Mini2%