Will the Nikkei 225 close above 65020.94 on Friday 11 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Nikkei closed below threshold, panel sat below the crowd and a very low NO call won

The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 0.47 while the crowd was 0.57, the crowd had called YES and the panel did not. Six of 18 models called the outcome correctly. GPT-5 Mini made the strongest successful NO call at p_yes 0.02, while models with higher YES probabilities missed, led by GPT-5 + web search at p_yes 0.56.

• Outcome: NO, Friday close 64011.34 vs threshold 65020.94.
• The crowd's p_yes was 0.57, it called YES; the panel mean p_yes was 0.47.
• Six of 18 panel models called it correctly.
• Lowest panel p_yes was 0.02 (GPT-5 Mini), highest was 0.56 (GPT-5 + web search).
• Worst Brier among panel forecasts was 0.314 for GPT-5 + web search; best was 0.000 for GPT-5 Mini.