Will the Nasdaq Composite close above 26333.04 on Friday 25 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Nasdaq closed above 26333.04, panel slightly less bullish than the base rate

The Nasdaq closed at 27068.72 on 25 September, a YES. The crowd (historical base rate) was 60% YES; the panel mean and median were both 52% YES, with 14 of 20 models calling YES. Gemini 2.5 Flash and Mistral Large made the strongest calls at 62% and scored the lowest Brier among panel members. The misses were models that leaned NO or near‑neutral; the weakest numeric call was GPT-5 Mini at 46%.

• Outcome: YES, Friday close 27068.72 vs threshold 26333.04.
• Crowd was a historical base rate at 60% YES, it called the outcome.
• Panel mean and median both 52% YES, 14 of 20 models called YES.
• Highest panel forecasts: Gemini 2.5 Flash and Mistral Large at 62%.
• Lowest forecast: GPT-5 Mini at 46%, which did not call YES.