MARKETS · Settled
Will the Nasdaq Composite close above 26506.99 on Friday 18 September?
The answer: YES
The panel of 18 models averaged 53% YES; 16 of 18 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 60%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Nasdaq closed above 26506.99, panel slightly less confident than the crowd
The outcome was YES. The panel mean was 0.53 (median 0.54), versus the crowd base rate 0.6. GPT-5 Mini and Mistral Large made the strongest panel calls at 0.6, producing the lowest panel Brier 0.16. The models that missed were mostly clustered around the low 50s and had no recorded theses or drivers.
- Outcome: YES (Friday close 26522.55 vs 26506.99).
- Panel: 18 models, 16 called it, mean 53% YES, median 54% YES.
- Crowd: base rate 60% YES, called it.
- Top panel forecasts: GPT-5 Mini and Mistral Large at 0.6, brier 0.16.
- Lowest panel forecasts: Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search 0.45, Kimi K2 0.48.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- GPT-5 Mini60%
- Mistral Large60%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro56%
- Perplexity Sonar56%
- DeepSeek V355%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash55%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search54%
- Grok 4.554%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro54%
- GPT-5 + web search53%
- GPT-553%
- Qwen3 235B52%
- Llama 4 Maverick52%
- DeepSeek R152%
- Claude Sonnet 4.551%
- Claude Opus 4.151%
- Kimi K248%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search45%