MARKETS · Settled
Will the Nasdaq Composite close above 26506.99 on Friday 11 September?
The answer: NO
The panel of 18 models averaged 51% YES; 3 of 18 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 60%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Nasdaq closed below the threshold, the panel sat near even while the crowd favoured YES
The Nasdaq closed at 26333.04 on 2026-09-11, below the 26506.99 target, so the outcome was NO. The panel mean was 51%, median 52%, while the crowd was 60% for YES. Three of 18 models correctly called the NO, led by GPT-5 which assigned 6% to YES. Misses clustered around modest YES probabilities, the highest being 68% from Gemini 2.5 Flash.
- Outcome: NO, Friday close 26333.04 vs 26506.99 at asking.
- Crowd favoured YES at 60%, it was wrong.
- Panel mean p_yes was 51%, median p_yes 52%.
- 3 of 18 models called it correctly.
- Lowest p_yes 6%, highest p_yes 68%.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Gemini 2.5 Flash68%
- Perplexity Sonar56%
- DeepSeek V355%
- Mistral Large55%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro54%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search54%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro54%
- Grok 4.553%
- Llama 4 Maverick52%
- Qwen3 235B52%
- DeepSeek R152%
- Claude Sonnet 4.552%
- GPT-5 Mini52%
- GPT-5 + web search51%
- Claude Opus 4.151%
- Kimi K248%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search48%
- GPT-56%