Will the EUR/USD close above 1.1464 on Friday 9 October?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel near-even split, mean 47% and narrow spread around 48%

The panel mean is 47% and the median is 48%, with individual forecasts ranging from 33% to 56%. Most records cluster near 48% and give no cited theses or sources. The panel splits modestly between slightly higher and slightly lower probabilities, with 6 models explicitly leaning yes. The single number doing the most work is the cluster around the mid-40s, reflected in mean 47% and median 48%.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 47%
• Panel median chance of YES is 48%
• Highest forecast is 56% (Perplexity Sonar)
• Lowest forecast is 33% (GPT-5 Mini)
• Six models are recorded as leaning yes