MARKETS · Settled
Will the EUR/USD close above 1.1618 on Friday 25 September?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 49% YES; 14 of 20 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 51%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
EUR/USD closed below 1.1618, panel mean 0.49 vs crowd base rate 0.51
The outcome was NO: the Friday close was 1.1400, below the 1.1618 threshold. The panel averaged 0.49 for YES, slightly below the crowd base rate of 0.51 which sided with YES. GPT-5 Mini scored best with the lowest Brier by assigning 0.42 to YES. Perplexity Sonar Pro was the worst call, assigning 0.58 to YES and incurring the largest Brier.
- Outcome NO: Friday close 1.1400 vs 1.1618 threshold (resolution source provided).
- Panel mean_p_yes was 0.49, median_p_yes 0.48, 14 models called it.
- Crowd was a historical base rate frozen at 0.51, it favoured YES.
- Best Brier 0.176 from GPT-5 Mini, which forecast 42% YES.
- Worst Brier 0.336 from Perplexity Sonar Pro, which forecast 58% YES.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Perplexity Sonar Pro58%
- Perplexity Sonar56%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search52%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search52%
- DeepSeek R150%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash50%
- Grok 4.549%
- Qwen3 235B48%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search48%
- Kimi K248%
- Mistral Large48%
- Llama 4 Maverick48%
- DeepSeek V348%
- Claude Opus 4.148%
- Claude Sonnet 4.548%
- GPT-548%
- GPT-5 + web search46%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search45%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro44%
- GPT-5 Mini42%