Will the EUR/USD close above 1.1598 on Friday 18 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

EUR/USD closed below 1.1598, panel leaned NO slightly under the crowd

The outcome was NO, the EUR/USD closed at 1.1464 on 18 September. The panel mean was 48% and the median 50%, versus the crowd base rate 51%, so the panel sat slightly more NO than the crowd. GPT-5 made the best call, assigning 20% to YES and therefore strongly favouring NO. Several models missed with near-even YES probabilities around 48, 58%, and none of the panel records provided theses or drivers to explain their views.

• Outcome: NO, Friday close 1.1464 vs threshold 1.1598.
• Panel mean 48%, median 50%, crowd base rate 51%.
• 8 of 18 panel models called the outcome correctly.
• Best single call: GPT-5 at 20% YES, near-zero Brier 0.04.
• Panel forecasts recorded no theses or drivers for their probabilities.