DECISIONS · Settled
Will the ECB deposit facility rate be cut at the 10 September 2026 meeting?
The answer: NO
The panel of 18 models averaged 29% YES; 14 of 18 were on the right side. The base rate when the panel was sealed: 11%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
ECB deposit rate was not cut; panel leaned NO more than the crowd but split widely
The ECB deposit facility rate was not cut on 10 September 2026, outcome NO. The panel mean was 0.29, versus the crowd historical base rate of 0.11; 14 of 18 models predicted NO. Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search made the best call at 2% for YES, scoring a near-zero Brier. A minority of models, led by Kimi K2 at 72% for YES, strongly favoured a cut and were the largest misses.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-09-10 13:15:01.
- Panel mean_p_yes 0.29, median_p_yes 0.28; 14 of 18 models called it.
- Crowd was a historical base rate 11% YES and also called it.
- Best forecast: Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search, 2% YES, near-zero Brier.
- Worst forecast: Kimi K2, 72% YES, largest Brier 0.518.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Kimi K272%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash65%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro62%
- Mistral Large55%
- GPT-542%
- Llama 4 Maverick42%
- Qwen3 235B42%
- GPT-5 Mini30%
- Claude Sonnet 4.528%
- Grok 4.527%
- DeepSeek V325%
- DeepSeek R112%
- Claude Opus 4.18%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search8%
- Perplexity Sonar4%
- GPT-5 + web search3%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro3%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search2%