Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close above 51828.62 on Friday 9 October?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel split around 50%, small tilt to YES; forecasts range 3% to 65%

The panel mean is 50% and the median is 52%, with 12 of 20 models leaning YES. Forecasts cluster near 50%, 57% on the high side, but the full spread runs from 0.03 to 0.65. Most records present no stated theses, drivers or sources; agreement is limited to a modest tilt toward YES. The split is driven by a group of models assigning moderate YES probabilities and one model assigning a very low probability.

• Panel mean_p_yes is 0.5 and median_p_yes is 0.52.
• Highest chance of YES is 0.65 (Mistral Large), lowest is 0.03 (GPT-5 Mini).
• 12 of 20 models are recorded as leaning YES.
• Most models give probabilities clustered between 0.48 and 0.57.
• Records contain no stated theses, drivers, uncertainty text or sources.