Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close above 52573.29 on Friday 25 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Dow closed below 52573.29; panel split, mean 48% vs base rate 59%

The outcome was NO: the Dow closed at 51828.62, below 52573.29. The panel mean was 0.48 and median 0.52, both below the crowd base rate of 0.59, so the crowd favoured YES while the panel sat slightly on NO. GPT-5 Mini made the best call, assigning 0.06 and scoring a near-zero Brier of 0.004. Many models favoured YES, the highest at 0.56, and the misses offered no recorded theses or drivers in the panel records.

• Outcome NO: Friday close 51828.62 vs threshold 52573.29.
• Panel mean_p_yes 0.48, median_p_yes 0.52, 7 of 20 called it correctly.
• Crowd was a historical base rate at 59% YES and did not call it.
• Best Brier: GPT-5 Mini 6% YES, brier 0.004.
• Largest spread: lowest 6% YES, highest 56% YES, records contain no theses.