Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close above 53414.25 on Friday 18 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Dow closed NO (51682.64), panel split; crowd favoured YES at 59%

The Dow closed at 51682.64 on 18 September, below the 53414.25 threshold, so the outcome was NO. The panel mean was 51% and the median 53%, both below the crowd base rate of 59% which favoured YES. GPT-5 Mini made the strongest correct call at 5% for YES and achieved the best Brier, however most models leaned toward YES and missed. The largest miss was Gemini 2.5 Flash at 68% for YES, which recorded no supporting drivers.

• Outcome: NO, actual close 51682.64 versus 53414.25 threshold.
• Panel mean 51% and median 53% versus crowd base rate 59% for YES.
• Best call: GPT-5 Mini at 5% for YES, near-zero Brier 0.003 and called it.
• Worst call: Gemini 2.5 Flash at 68% for YES, Brier 0.462 and called it wrong.
• Forecast spread wide: lowest 5% (GPT-5 Mini) to highest 68% (Gemini 2.5 Flash).