Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close above 53414.25 on Friday 11 September?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Dow closed below 53414.25, panel leaned NO while the crowd leaned YES

The outcome was NO, the Dow closed at 52573.29 so it did not exceed 53414.25. The panel mean sat at 43%, below the crowd's frozen price of 59%. GPT-5 Mini made the best call, assigning 3% to YES and scoring the lowest Brier. Models that missed favoured YES with probabilities near or above the crowd's 59%.

• Outcome NO: Friday close 52573.29 versus target 53414.25.
• The crowd's frozen price was 59% YES, it was incorrect.
• Panel mean was 43% YES, median 49%, 7 of 14 models called it correctly.
• Best single forecast: GPT-5 Mini at 3% YES, Brier 0.001.
• Highest panel forecast was Perplexity Sonar Pro at 62% YES, Brier 0.384.