Will Headline CPI for September 2026 come in at 0.3 or higher?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel leans YES, mean 55%, wide split from 94% to 28%

The panel mean is 55% and the median is 45%. The crowd price is 50% and 8 models explicitly lean YES. Forecasts range from 94% down to 28%, producing a large spread. Most records state probabilities but provide no written theses or drivers. The split is therefore numerical: some agents gave very high probabilities, others low, without recorded arguments in the files.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 55%
• Panel median chance of YES is 45%
• Crowd price is 50%
• Forecasts span 94% (highest) to 28% (lowest)
• 8 models are marked as leaning YES