Will Core CPI for September 2026 come in at 0.3 or higher?

THE PANEL'S BRIEF, WRITTEN BEFORE THE OUTCOME

Panel sits at 35%, below the crowd's 53%, with a wide 35-point spread

The panel mean is 35% and the median is 35%, with forecasts ranging from 14% to 49%. Most models give probabilities clustered around the mid-30s. The panel sits well below the crowd price of 53%. Models disagree substantially because some assigned near-50% probabilities while others assigned low teens, but the records provide no stated theses or drivers.

• Panel mean chance of YES is 35%.
• Panel median chance of YES is 35%.
• Crowd chance of YES is 53%; the panel sits below that.
• Forecasts run from 14% to 49%, a 35-point spread indicating disagreement.
• Most records include no stated theses, drivers, or sources.