Will above 90000 jobs be added in September 2026?

THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME

Jobs under 90,000 in September: panel leaned YES but crowd leaned stronger, minority correctly said NO

The question resolved NO. The panel mean was 60% YES and median 63% YES, while the crowd price was 66% YES on Polymarket (frozen). Six of 20 models called the NO correctly; the best-scoring forecasts were the 35% YES calls with Brier 0.123. The strongest wrong calls were 85% YES forecasts whose records contain no supporting theses or drivers.

• Outcome: NO, settled on Kalshi market KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T90000.
• Crowd: 66% YES, Polymarket price frozen when the question was asked.
• Panel: mean 60% YES, median 63% YES, 6 of 20 models called NO.
• Best Brier 0.123: three models at 35% YES (called NO).
• Largest spread: highest 85% YES, lowest 35% YES, records show no recorded theses or drivers.