MARKETS · Settled
Will above 80000 jobs be added in September 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 63% YES; 2 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 66%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel leaned YES but outcome was NO; two models called it correctly
The question resolved NO. The panel mean was 63% YES, the crowd Polymarket price was 66% YES, both leaned the other way from the outcome. Two models called it: Llama 4 Maverick (23% YES) and DeepSeek V3 + web search (42% YES); Llama 4 Maverick had the best score with a near-zero Brier of 0.053. Most models were on the YES side, with Claude Sonnet 4.5 (82% YES) the strongest YES and therefore the largest miss.
- Outcome: NO, settled by Kalshi market KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T80000.
- Panel mean 63% YES, median 66% YES; crowd Polymarket price 66% YES.
- Two models called NO: Llama 4 Maverick (23%) and DeepSeek V3 + web search (42%).
- Best call: Llama 4 Maverick, Brier 0.053; worst call: Claude Sonnet 4.5, Brier 0.672.
- Panel disagreement was large: highest 82% YES, lowest 23% YES, difference 59 points.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Claude Sonnet 4.582%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro78%
- GPT-578%
- DeepSeek R175%
- Claude Opus 4.172%
- Kimi K272%
- Mistral Large68%
- Grok 4.568%
- DeepSeek V368%
- GPT-5 + web search68%
- GPT-5 Mini63%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash63%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro62%
- Perplexity Sonar61%
- Qwen3 235B55%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search51%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search51%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search50%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search42%
- Llama 4 Maverick23%