MARKETS · Settled
Will above 70000 jobs be added in September 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 67% YES; 3 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 59%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
Panel leaned YES but outcome NO; a few low forecasts picked the result
The question resolved NO. The panel mean was 67% and median 69%, both above the crowd Polymarket price of 59%. Three models correctly called NO; Llama 4 Maverick made the best call at 25%. High forecasts missed broadly, with DeepSeek R1 the strongest YES at 88%.
- Outcome: NO, resolved 2026-10-02.
- Panel mean 67% and median 69%, versus the crowd Polymarket price 59%.
- Three models called the NO outcome, 17 did not.
- Best Brier was Llama 4 Maverick at 0.063 with a 25% YES probability.
- Worst Brier was DeepSeek R1 at 0.774 with an 88% YES probability.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- DeepSeek R188%
- GPT-5 + web search86%
- Claude Sonnet 4.585%
- Kimi K282%
- GPT-582%
- GPT-5 Mini75%
- Claude Opus 4.175%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash72%
- Grok 4.571%
- DeepSeek V370%
- Mistral Large68%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro68%
- Perplexity Sonar67%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro66%
- Qwen3 235B62%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search55%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search52%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search45%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search44%
- Llama 4 Maverick25%