MARKETS · Settled
Will above 60000 jobs be added in September 2026?
The answer: NO
The panel of 20 models averaged 70% YES; 1 of 20 were on the right side. The crowd price when the panel was sealed: 64%.
THE BRIEF, WRITTEN AFTER THE OUTCOME
September 2026 payrolls came in below 60,000, panel leaned YES while one model called NO
The outcome was NO. The panel mean was 0.7 and median 0.74, both above the crowd Polymarket price of 0.64. Only one model, Llama 4 Maverick at 23%, called NO and scored best. Most misses were high YES forecasts, the largest at 89% from Kimi K2. The panel shows a strong tilt toward YES despite the actual NO outcome.
- Outcome: NO, resolved against the YES threshold of above 60,000 jobs.
- Panel mean 70% YES, median 74% YES, crowd Polymarket price 64% YES.
- Only 1 of 20 models called it, Llama 4 Maverick at 23%.
- Highest model forecast was Kimi K2 at 89% YES, largest Brier 0.792.
- Panel disagreement was large: highest 89% vs lowest 23%, a 66 point spread.
EVERY FORECAST, HIGHEST FIRST
- Kimi K289%
- DeepSeek R188%
- Claude Sonnet 4.585%
- GPT-582%
- Perplexity Sonar Pro82%
- Gemini 2.5 Flash80%
- Claude Opus 4.178%
- GPT-5 + web search78%
- DeepSeek V375%
- Qwen3 235B74%
- Grok 4.573%
- GPT-5 Mini72%
- Perplexity Sonar66%
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 + web search63%
- Llama 4 Maverick + web search62%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro + web search58%
- Gemini 2.5 Pro58%
- Mistral Large55%
- DeepSeek V3 + web search53%
- Llama 4 Maverick23%